ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for about 48% of people living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measure uses the international extreme poverty line of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold rose 6.4 percentage points between 2018-19 and 2024-25. The increase made Pakistan the largest contributor to extreme poverty in the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank said Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen together account for another 47% of MENAAP’s people living below the $3 daily threshold. Combined with Pakistan, the four countries represent about 95% of the region’s extreme poor. MENAAP now accounts for about 14% of the world’s extreme poor, a share exceeded only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region also remains the only World Bank region where poverty is above pre-pandemic levels and continues to rise.
Pakistan also recorded deterioration at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line used for lower-middle-income economies. The share of people below that threshold rose by 3.2 percentage points between 2018-19 and 2024-25. World Bank data place the rate at about 48% in 2024, compared with 44.7% in 2018. The report linked the deterioration to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation and a prolonged period of economic adjustment.
Poverty pressures deepen after successive shocks
The latest findings follow a major update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan raised the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. That revision added about 21 million people to the region’s estimated extreme poverty total. In September 2026, the World Bank said MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates above 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Pakistan’s economic growth has improved from recent lows, but poverty indicators remain elevated. The October regional update estimated Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% in fiscal 2025-26 and projected 3.8% growth in fiscal 2026-27. The update estimates real GDP per person growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. It estimates inflation at 7.1% in 2026 and projects 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification shapes the headline figure
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current MENAAP statistical classification, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Before that change, World Bank regional statistics placed both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government said the change was administrative and statistical and did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad said the revised grouping changed regional poverty aggregates by adding Pakistan’s large population to the MENAAP calculations.
The World Bank’s October update also showed a weaker regional economy in 2026. It projected MENAAP output to contract 2.1% after growth of 3.3% in 2025, with conflict and disruptions to energy, logistics and trade weighing on activity. Developing oil importers, including Pakistan, remained comparatively resilient in the regional outlook. The update projects growth of 4.3% for that group in 2026, while higher food and energy costs continue to pressure household purchasing power across several economies.